石化业将成为原油需求增长“领头羊”

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) indicates that global oil demand will remain sluggish through 2026 due to ongoing macroeconomic weakness, with the petrochemical sector being the main driver of oil demand growth, although its impact is expected to weaken [1][2] Group 1: Oil Demand - IEA's October report highlights that current oil demand growth expectations are significantly below historical trends, primarily due to the electrification of transportation, which continues to suppress oil consumption growth [1] - The agency predicts an average daily increase in global oil demand of approximately 700,000 barrels in the remaining part of 2025 and in 2026, despite a reported increase of 750,000 barrels per day in the third quarter of this year [1] - The growth in oil demand during the third quarter was mainly driven by a rebound in petrochemical feedstock demand, which had previously been affected by tariffs, resulting in a daily increase of only 420,000 barrels in the second quarter [1] Group 2: Oil Supply - In September, global oil supply increased by 760,000 barrels per day to reach 108 million barrels per day, driven by OPEC+ production growth [2] - IEA forecasts that global oil supply will continue to exceed demand, with an expected increase of 3 million barrels per day by 2025, reaching 106.1 million barrels per day, and a further increase of 2.4 million barrels per day in 2026 [2] - Non-OPEC+ countries are anticipated to become significant contributors to the growth in oil supply [2]