三聚氰胺市场低迷难改

Core Insights - The domestic melamine industry is experiencing a deep adjustment period due to a supply-demand imbalance, with both capacity expansion and weak demand intensifying market competition [1][2]. Supply and Demand Imbalance - The domestic melamine market ended the first half of 2025 on a downward trend, primarily driven by a fundamental imbalance in supply and demand [2]. - As of 2024, domestic melamine production capacity reached 2.31 million tons, expected to increase to 2.6 million tons by the end of 2025, with an additional 940,000 tons of new capacity to be released in the coming years [2]. - Demand remains weak, particularly from the construction sector, which accounts for nearly 60% of melamine consumption. The sales area of new commercial housing in 2024 is projected to decline by 12.9% year-on-year [2]. Profitability Pressure - The supply-demand pressure has directly impacted corporate profitability, with melamine prices in 2025 plummeting by 20% year-on-year [3]. - As of October 16, 2025, the mainstream ex-factory cash reference price for melamine was 5,084 yuan, with profit margins for various production methods shrinking significantly [3]. - The core reasons for narrowing profits include persistent weak demand and limited support from raw material prices, with urea prices also declining [3]. Export Challenges - In the first eight months of the year, China's melamine export volume reached 427,300 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%. However, the average export price fell by $166.3, indicating that increased export volume did not translate into higher profits [4]. Industry Structural Adjustments - The industry is witnessing three major trends: increased enterprise concentration, regional concentration, and a shift towards green and high-end transformation [5]. - The market share of the top five melamine companies (CR5) rose from 38% in 2020 to 52% in 2025, reflecting a 14 percentage point increase over five years [5]. - By the end of 2025, five regions (Xinjiang, Shandong, Sichuan, Henan, and Shanxi) will account for 77.5% of the total melamine production capacity in China [5]. Green and High-End Transformation - Stricter environmental regulations and upgraded downstream demand are driving the need for green and high-end transformation in the industry [5][6]. - The implementation of the national standard GB 18580-2025 will compel manufacturers to use low-formaldehyde additives, indirectly boosting the demand for environmentally friendly melamine [6]. - Long-term success in the melamine industry will depend on optimizing capacity, upgrading technology, and expanding demand [6].