Huan Qiu Wang·2025-10-21 03:31Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's latest report indicates that after seasonal adjustments in Q3, Chinese bank stocks are entering a cyclical bottom, with promising investment opportunities expected in Q4 of this year and Q1 of next year. This cycle's bottoming is characterized as a "natural clearing" without large-scale stimulus interventions, marking a new development phase for the market [1]. Group 1: Economic Indicators and Market Dynamics - Multiple economic indicators suggest that the adjustment in the domestic banking system is nearing its end, with a rebound in M1 growth and improved industrial profits occurring without major economic stimulus [1]. - The report highlights that this is a significant milestone, indicating that the internal circulation dynamics of the Chinese economy are strengthening, and the financial system is becoming less dependent on policy stimulus [1]. Group 2: Factors Supporting Bank Stock Revaluation - Four key factors are expected to support the revaluation of bank stocks in the upcoming quarters: 1. The dividend distribution window is approaching, with Q4 typically seeing a concentration of dividend payouts from listed banks, enhancing the attractiveness of high-dividend characteristics for long-term capital [3]. 2. A stable interest rate environment is emerging, which will help alleviate the pressure from the continuous narrowing of banks' net interest margins, thus supporting profitability [3]. 3. The rollout of approximately 500 billion RMB in structural monetary policy tools will inject liquidity into the banking system and guide credit towards specific sectors, optimizing asset structures [3]. 4. Current policy support is more focused on precision and sustainability, avoiding "flood irrigation" and creating a more predictable operating environment for the banking industry [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategy Shift - The previous investment logic relying on macroeconomic strong stimulus is no longer effective. Investors are advised to strategically shift their focus [3]. - Future excess returns will not stem from sector-wide beta trends but rather from alpha opportunities, emphasizing the need to identify leading banks that can achieve earlier and stronger profit rebounds through superior risk management, efficient operating models, and high-quality customer bases in a "natural clearing" environment [3][4].