智通财经网·2025-10-21 03:31Core Viewpoint - Kuaishou-W (01024) shares rose over 4%, reaching HKD 89.2 with a trading volume of HKD 4.677 billion, as analysts anticipate stable Q3 earnings in line with market expectations [1] Financial Performance - Citigroup forecasts Kuaishou's Q3 total revenue to grow by 13% year-on-year, reaching RMB 35.2 billion, aligning with market expectations [1] - The projected growth in revenue is supported by a 15% year-on-year increase in Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) [1] - Advertising revenue, other income, and live streaming revenue are expected to grow by 12%, 36%, and 5% year-on-year, respectively [1] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin is anticipated to be 55%, while the adjusted operating profit margin is expected to decrease to 14% from 17% in Q2 2025, primarily due to increased marketing expenses [1] - Adjusted profit is projected to be RMB 4.86 billion, consistent with market expectations [1] Strategic Insights - Investors may focus on management's outlook regarding the revenue prospects of Kuaishou's AI initiative, Keling, for the fiscal year 2025 [1] - For the upcoming Double Eleven discount day, Kuaishou is expected to simplify its discount strategy and provide AI technology support to merchants to boost GMV [1] Market Trends - The recovery in live e-commerce and the momentum in shelf-based e-commerce are contributing positively to Kuaishou's growth [1] - Other income growth may accelerate due to increased commission rates, monetization of e-commerce value-added services, and Keling's promotions [1]