马斯克预测Grok 5实现AGI概率达10%

Core Insights - Elon Musk predicts a 10% probability of achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) with the development of the Grok 5 large language model by xAI, with this probability on a continuous upward trend [1][3] Group 1: Definition and Capabilities of AGI - Musk defines AGI as an intelligent system capable of completing all tasks that humans can achieve through computer assistance, emphasizing that its capabilities will not exceed the collective level of human and computer collaboration [3] - Current mainstream AI models focus on specific task optimization, while AGI requires cross-domain knowledge transfer, autonomous learning, and creative thinking, which are core human abilities [3] Group 2: Grok Series Models and Technological Advancements - The Grok series models, particularly Grok-1 and Grok-1.5V, have shown significant advancements, with Grok-1 achieving performance close to LLaMA 2 using only half the training resources, and Grok-1.5V capable of generating Python code from visual information [3] - Grok 5 is viewed as a critical milestone for xAI, with a new architecture design that may reduce reliance on massive data sets and lower training costs through a more efficient self-learning system [3][4] Group 3: Competitive Edge and Resource Utilization - Musk humorously claims that Grok 5 has surpassed the performance of Canadian deep learning expert Andrej Karpathy in the AI engineering field, who previously advocated for the "model size equals performance" paradigm [4] - xAI has achieved breakthroughs in resource utilization by optimizing its training stack, which is based on a custom framework utilizing Kubernetes, Rust, and JAX [4]