韩国央行货币政策前瞻：出口暴跌、韩元承压 降息时点再度推迟

Group 1 - The Bank of Korea is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 2.50% during the upcoming monetary policy meeting, with analysts predicting no rate cuts in October and potential cuts delayed to November or later [1][2] - The Bank of Korea has kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged since it was lowered to 2.50% in May, with the governor emphasizing a cautious policy stance [2] - The introduction of a "conditional forward guidance" mechanism aims to enhance monetary policy transparency and market communication, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment [2] Group 2 - South Korea's exports to the U.S. saw a significant decline of over 40% in the first ten days of October, influenced by U.S. tariff policies, leading to a shift in South Korea's export market ranking [3] - The domestic real estate market is a critical factor influencing monetary policy, with the Bank of Korea's governor stating efforts to avoid unnecessary liquidity injections amid rising property prices [3] - The consumer price index (CPI) in South Korea rose by 2.1% year-on-year in September, slightly exceeding market expectations, driven by a significant increase in communication costs [3] Group 3 - The Korean won depreciated against the U.S. dollar, prompting the Ministry of Economy and Finance and the Bank of Korea to implement verbal interventions to stabilize the currency [4] - External factors such as the U.S. government shutdown and ongoing trade tensions have contributed to increased market volatility and capital outflow pressures [4] - The Bank of Korea's governor stated that the current exchange rate is not at crisis levels and clarified that discussions with the Federal Reserve regarding currency swap arrangements have not occurred [4] Group 4 - Citigroup's economists believe that the current interest rate cut cycle in South Korea may be ending, adjusting their predictions for future rate cuts based on various economic factors [5] - The new forecast suggests that the Bank of Korea may only cut rates in November 2026 and May 2027, with a terminal rate of 2% [5] - Capital Economics predicts that the South Korean economy will slow down due to export pressures and a decline in fiscal stimulus, potentially leading to three more rate cuts by the end of the year [6]