黄金需求的 “冰与火” 重构，从消费退潮到投资狂热的深层解读

Core Viewpoint - The global gold market is experiencing a paradox of soaring prices alongside declining consumption, driven by a significant restructuring of demand dynamics, where traditional consumption is waning while investment and functional demand are surging [1] Traditional Consumption Demand - Traditional gold consumption, primarily for jewelry and weddings, is undergoing a notable decline, characterized by three main trends [2] - Wedding demand is shifting from "must buy" to "can rent," with the percentage of newlyweds purchasing full sets of gold jewelry dropping from 68% in 2023 to 32% in 2025, while the rental option has increased from 5% to 28% [2] - The cost of traditional gold jewelry has surged over 64% year-on-year, leading to a rise in sales of alternative materials like silver and alloy, which increased by 45% [2] Gift Demand - The demand for gold as a gift is significantly shrinking, with the proportion of gold gift consumption dropping from 18% in 2023 to 9% in 2025, marking the largest decline among all consumption categories [3] - High gold prices have made gifting gold less appealing, as the amount of gold that can be purchased for the same budget has halved, prompting consumers to opt for practical gifts like electronics instead [3] Investment Demand - In stark contrast to declining consumption, investment demand for gold is experiencing a robust surge, with various investor profiles entering the market [4] - Ordinary investors are increasingly turning to "accumulated gold" and "gold ETFs," with over 12 million personal accounts opened for accumulated gold, and monthly trading volumes exceeding 300 tons [5] - High-net-worth individuals prefer physical gold bars, with consumption reaching 293 tons in the first half of 2025, a 26% increase year-on-year [6] - Institutional investors, including central banks, are strategically increasing their gold holdings, with China's central bank having added gold for 11 consecutive months, reaching 7.406 million ounces by the end of September [7] Market Transformation Logic and Outlook - The transformation in gold demand reflects a dual drive of pragmatic consumption and risk aversion in the current economic environment [8] - Traditional gold retailers must adapt by increasing the proportion of lightweight and design-oriented products while reducing premiums [8] - The market is evolving from a singular focus on jewelry or investment to a composite asset that encompasses consumption, investment, and liquidity, indicating a long-term shift in market dynamics [8]