吴照银：关税冲击A股，长期资金迎配置窗口期

Core Viewpoint - The potential reintroduction of tariffs by President Trump could lead to short-term adjustments in the A-share market, but it is essential to differentiate between short-term pressures and long-term investment opportunities [1][5]. Group 1: Impact of Tariffs on Trade - Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese exports to the U.S. has caused significant volatility in global capital markets, with major U.S. indices like the Nasdaq and S&P 500 experiencing declines of 3.5% and 2.7% respectively [1]. - Despite the ongoing trade tensions, China's overall export resilience remains strong, with a 5.9% year-on-year growth in exports during the first eight months of the year, surpassing last year's growth of 4.68% [2]. - While exports to the U.S. have decreased by 15.5%, the overall impact on China's exports is minimal due to strong competitiveness and stable international trade growth [2]. Group 2: A-Share Market Dynamics - The stability and growth of China's foreign trade and economy provide a solid value base for the capital market, suggesting that irrational declines in stock prices are unlikely [3]. - A-share market fundamentals remain strong, supported by low interest rates, low valuations, and favorable policies, with the rolling P/E ratio of the CSI 300 index at 14 times compared to 30 times for the S&P 500 [3]. - Regulatory policies have been supportive of the stock market, promoting long-term investment and creating a favorable environment for capital inflow, which is expected to continue despite external pressures [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Investment Opportunities - The recent volatility in the market may present long-term investment opportunities, especially for funds that have been waiting for a favorable entry point [4][5]. - However, there are concerns about overvaluation in certain stocks, particularly those lacking performance support, which may face downward adjustments [4]. - The significant increase in market financing balance, which has doubled over the past year, indicates a mix of long-term and speculative funds, suggesting potential for short-term market corrections [4].