需求表现较强韧性 铁矿石止跌反弹但上行驱动不足

Core Viewpoint - Iron ore futures prices have shown signs of rebound after five consecutive days of decline, with the main contract rising by 0.65% to 773.5 yuan/ton as of the report date [1] Market Inventory and Shipping Data - China's total iron ore inventory at 47 ports reached 150.65 million tons, an increase of 3.40 million tons compared to the previous week [2] - During the period from October 13 to October 19, iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil decreased by 1.17 million tons, reaching a six-month low [2] - Global iron ore shipments totaled 33.34 million tons, an increase of 1.26 million tons week-on-week, with Australia and Brazil contributing 28.25 million tons, up by 0.94 million tons [2] Future Market Outlook - According to Shenwan Hongyuan Futures, iron ore prices are currently weak, but steel mills maintain production due to strong demand driven by profits, with iron water output recovering to previous levels [3] - Galaxy Futures suggests that while domestic steel demand may recover in Q4, the market is currently affected by weakening terminal demand, leading to increased iron ore inventory and overall supply [3] - Nanhua Futures indicates that although short-term price valuations are low due to widening basis, there is insufficient upward momentum, with future market direction dependent on policy signals and potential domestic demand stimulus [3]