刚需稳定但宏观层面扰动未消 短期焦煤宽幅震荡

Group 1 - The Indonesian government has announced an increase in all grades of coal benchmark prices (HBA) for the second half of October, with high calorific value coal (GAR 6322 kcal/kg) set at $109.74 per ton FOB, a rise of 2.62% compared to the first half of the month [1] - The benchmark price for medium calorific value coal (GAR 5300 kcal) has been raised to $67.76 per ton, reflecting an increase of over 4%, while low calorific value coal (GAR 4100 kcal) saw a slight increase of 1% to $43.71 per ton [1] - On October 21, the online auction prices for coking coal in the Lüliang market increased, with high-sulfur coking coal starting at 1200 CNY per ton and closing at 1265 CNY per ton, while low-sulfur coking coal had an average transaction price of 1573 CNY per ton, up 103 CNY from the previous auction [1] Group 2 - According to research from Everbright Futures, the supply side is experiencing a reduction due to stricter environmental and safety regulations leading to some coal mines in the Uihai region being temporarily shut down, resulting in a decrease in overall operating rates [2] - Demand remains stable as downstream coking enterprises maintain their operating rates, but some steel companies are facing profit pressures, leading to varying degrees of production cuts or maintenance, which may impact the demand for raw coal [2] - Huawen Futures indicates that the market is experiencing a tug-of-war between constrained terminal demand and support from the industry, with concerns about steel demand recovery and profit shrinkage in steel mills, while coking enterprises maintain high operating levels, leading to a short-term oscillation in coking coal prices [2]