黄金时间·每日论金：金价中长期上涨逻辑稳固 短期警惕本周美国经济数据公布前后的波动风险

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market has experienced a significant upward trend, with prices rising for five consecutive days, driven by factors such as U.S. fiscal and credit risks, accelerated institutional inflows, a shift in pricing logic, and challenges in Federal Reserve policy decisions [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Government and Economic Indicators - The U.S. government shutdown has lasted for 21 days, causing disruptions, including 1,400 employees of the National Nuclear Security Administration being placed on unpaid leave, marking the first such occurrence since its establishment in 2000 [1]. - Key economic indicators, including the September CPI and non-farm employment data, have been delayed, with a concentrated release expected on October 24, which may lead to market volatility [1]. - Despite expectations that the shutdown may end soon, the White House is preparing emergency measures, indicating ongoing political uncertainties [1]. Group 2: Debt and Credit Risks - U.S. federal debt has surged by $1.7 trillion to $37.9 trillion since the debt ceiling was raised in July, with a persistent fiscal deficit exceeding 6% of GDP, raising concerns about the government's ability to meet its obligations [1]. - The shutdown has exposed vulnerabilities in the government's repayment capacity, leading to a widening trust gap in the U.S. dollar's creditworthiness [1]. Group 3: Institutional Inflows and Market Dynamics - Over the past month, global gold ETFs have seen net inflows exceeding $8.4 billion, the highest monthly inflow since 2020, with nearly 70% coming from the North American market [2]. - COMEX gold net long positions increased to 271,000 contracts in the second week of October, reflecting a nearly 20% week-on-week growth, while there has been a simultaneous net outflow from dollar assets and U.S. Treasury ETFs [2]. - The market's perception of gold has shifted from being an "inflation hedge" to a "credit hedge," indicating a re-evaluation of gold as a structural asset to mitigate risks associated with U.S. debt imbalances and credit overextension [2]. Group 4: Federal Reserve Policy Challenges - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged that the government shutdown has led to a lack of official economic data, complicating policy formulation [2]. - The Fed faces conflicting goals of boosting employment and stabilizing inflation, having already cut rates by 25 basis points in September, with market attention on potential future rate cuts [2]. - It is noted that while rate cuts can adjust interest rates, they cannot address the credit gap, maintaining the long-term support logic for gold [2]. Group 5: Market Outlook and Technical Analysis - Short-term focus should be on the economic data release on October 24, which may cause fluctuations in gold prices, but the structural support for gold remains intact despite the government shutdown [3]. - In the medium to long term, the ongoing expansion of U.S. debt and fiscal imbalances will continue to reinforce the "credit hedge" logic for gold [3]. - Technically, gold is currently in an upward phase, with healthy adjustments expected, and trading volume on October 21 reached 10.805 billion yuan, indicating strong market activity [3].