上半年交易规模已逼近去年全年，私募信贷投资热潮蔓延至新兴市场

Core Insights - The private credit market is increasingly shifting focus to emerging markets as US private credit faces challenges, with transaction volumes in emerging markets nearing last year's total in just the first half of this year [1][2] - Major global institutions like Blackstone and Apollo Global Management are participating in emerging market private credit transactions, indicating a growing interest and potential in this sector [2][3] Emerging Market Trends - As of the first half of 2025, private loan institutions have deployed $11.7 billion in emerging markets, approaching the total for all of 2024, driven by investors seeking alternatives to the US market [2] - Emerging markets account for half of global GDP but represent less than 10% of the $1.7 trillion private credit market, highlighting significant growth potential [2][3] Investment Opportunities - Emerging market private credit is seen as a tool for diversification and potentially higher returns, with many institutions beginning to explore these markets after previously viewing them as too risky [2][3] - The overall recovery in emerging markets, with stock markets rising nearly 27% this year and hard currency bond yields approaching 9%, has prompted a reevaluation of investment strategies [2][3] Transaction Dynamics - The largest private credit transactions this year have originated from India, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe, with significant funding needs driven by infrastructure projects in India [3][4] - Private credit currently constitutes about 2% to 3% of total debt for some companies, providing a flexible funding source despite typically higher costs compared to public markets [4] Future Outlook - Analysts expect record transaction volumes in emerging market private credit this year, with the International Finance Corporation working to attract more capital into these markets [5][6] - New financial instruments, such as the $510 million loan collateralized obligation (CLO) launched by the World Bank, aim to facilitate larger private credit investments in emerging markets [6] Risk and Governance - Emerging market private credit is perceived to have more controllable risks compared to the US market, with characteristics such as lower leverage and a focus on governance [6] - The current environment in emerging markets is viewed as attractive, with lower leverage ratios and less competition compared to developed markets [6]