《2025年前三季度宏观政策“三策合一”研究报告》发布

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the resilience and positive development of China's industrial economy in the first three quarters of 2025, emphasizing the need for coordinated macroeconomic policies to support growth and innovation [1][2][4]. Economic Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the industrial added value grew by 6.2%, surpassing the growth rates of 2023 and 2024 by 1.6 and 0.4 percentage points respectively [2]. - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors saw added value growth of 9.7% and 9.6%, respectively, exceeding the overall industrial growth by 3.5 and 3.4 percentage points [2]. - The service sector also experienced rapid growth, with a 5.4% increase in added value, 0.4 percentage points higher than in 2024 [2]. - Notably, the information transmission, software, and IT services sector achieved an impressive growth rate of 11.2% [2]. R&D and Innovation - China's R&D investment intensity rose from 1.91% in 2012 to 2.68% in 2024, indicating a strong commitment to innovation [3]. - The proportion of basic research funding within total R&D expenditures increased from below 5% (2012-2014) to 6.91% in 2024, highlighting a focus on foundational research [3]. - China's global innovation index ranking improved from 34th in 2012 to 11th in 2024, marking a significant advancement in overall innovation capabilities [3]. Policy Recommendations - The report suggests enhancing the proportion of basic R&D investment and improving the coordination of stability, structural, and growth policies to address potential impacts on employment and economic structure [3]. - It emphasizes the need for a comprehensive macroeconomic policy package in the fourth quarter, focusing on optimizing investment, industrial, and income distribution structures to balance supply and demand [4].