中金：水泥单月需求跌幅扩大 钢铁供需双弱

Group 1: Cement Industry - In September, cement production reached 154 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.6%, which is a slight increase in the decline compared to August's 6.2% [1] - The broad infrastructure investment in September fell by 8.4% year-on-year, with specific sectors like water conservancy and public facilities management declining by 15%, indicating weak cement demand [1] - The average national cement price in September increased by 3 yuan to 342 yuan per ton, but remains below last year's 375 yuan per ton; the estimated gross profit per ton in September decreased by approximately 18 yuan year-on-year [1] - Companies to watch include Conch Cement (00914), China Resources Cement (01313), and Shangfeng Cement (000672.SH) [2] Group 2: Glass Industry - From January to September 2025, the area of completed housing fell by 15% year-on-year to 31.1 million square meters, leading to sustained pressure on demand for glass [3] - The number of days for float glass deep processing orders in September decreased by 10% year-on-year to 10.75 days, indicating a slowdown in demand [3] - Despite a drop in raw material prices, most capacities have not yet reached cash flow loss, delaying systematic cold repairs; the daily melting capacity of float glass remained high at 15.9 thousand tons per day at the end of September [3] - Companies to watch include Xinyi Glass (00868) and Qibin Group (601636.SH) [3] Group 3: Steel Industry - In September, crude steel production was 73.49 million tons, down 4.6% year-on-year, while apparent domestic consumption was 64.52 million tons, also down 4.4%, indicating a widening decline in supply and demand [4] - The recent weakening of supply and demand has led to a reduction in steel prices and profits, although the long-term trend for supply and demand improvement remains unchanged [4] - Companies to focus on include Hualing Steel (000932.SZ) for long-term valuation recovery and efficient rebar companies for short-term impacts from production adjustments [4]