Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-10-21 07:57Core Insights - The report by the Bank of China outlines the global asset allocation strategy for personal finance in Q4 2025, focusing on economic and financial trends both domestically and internationally [1] Review Section - In Q3, the phenomenon of "cold economy, hot assets" persisted, with global equity markets benefiting from liquidity during the interest rate cut cycle and the evolution of AI narratives. The US tariff policy has become less impactful, leading to a bullish trend in the Chinese A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [2] - The global economic momentum remains weak, with a divergence in the US and China bond markets, where US bonds are performing better while Chinese bonds are weaker. The US dollar is experiencing weakness, while the Renminbi shows resilience and a steady increase. Gold has been on a significant upward trend, reaching historical highs, while commodity performance is mixed, with copper and aluminum strong and oil weak [2] Economic Outlook Section - In Q4, the global economy will continue to face uncertainties despite a loose monetary and fiscal environment. The Federal Reserve may continue to cut interest rates amid challenges related to employment and inflation, while the fiscal issues behind the US government shutdown raise concerns about stagflation. The European Central Bank is nearing the end of its rate cuts, with debt pressures in major economies acting as a barrier to growth [3] - China's economy achieved a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 5.2% in the first three quarters, but the three main drivers of growth are under pressure. Policies will focus on implementation and detail, with the potential for support in response to unexpected events. Over the longer term, the "14th Five-Year Plan" will emphasize high-quality development, focusing on themes such as technological innovation, domestic demand, and investment in human capital [3] Major Asset Analysis Section - In Q4, both the US and China may experience synchronized liquidity easing. There are early signs of bubble formation in US AI capital investments, which should be approached with caution. A bullish atmosphere has formed in the Chinese equity market, entering a critical phase of a slow bull market, while Hong Kong stocks are expected to continue a volatile upward trend [4] - In the bond market, the upward trend in US bonds is likely to continue, while domestic easing policies support a bullish tail in the bond market, although the bond market remains weak due to the stock-bond seesaw effect. In foreign exchange, the US dollar is expected to remain weak, with fluctuations in non-US currencies, while the Renminbi may continue to rise steadily. Gold is in a major upward trend but may enter a consolidation phase after reaching a peak, and the commodity market is expected to maintain its mixed performance [4] Opportunities and Risks Section - In Q4, the market presents both opportunities and risks. Opportunities include the potential for a "long bull slow bull" in the Chinese stock market, making it a good time for "buying the dip" and "winter sowing" strategies, particularly in high-dividend sectors and mainstream strong sectors during pullbacks [5] - Risks include the recommendation against zero allocation in Chinese equity assets and gold, which could lead to missing historical strategic asset allocation opportunities and a lack of long-term growth momentum. Additionally, there is a short-term risk of chasing high-priced assets or sectors, particularly in gold and leading indices in A-shares and US stocks, which may affect investor confidence [5] Global Asset Allocation Strategy Overview - The report provides a detailed table of global asset allocation strategies, indicating varying degrees of allocation recommendations across different asset classes, including equities, bonds, commodities, and foreign exchange [6][7]