中金：煤炭供给收紧 煤价仍有上行动能

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates a mixed outlook for the coal industry, with domestic coal production continuing to decline while coal prices show signs of upward momentum due to supply-demand dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Domestic Coal Production - In the first three quarters of 2025, the raw coal production reached 3.57 billion tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.0% [2] - September's coal production was 412 million tons, down 1.8% year-on-year, continuing the downward trend but with a narrowing decline [2] - Coal imports for the first three quarters of 2025 totaled 346 million tons, a decrease of 11.1% year-on-year [2] Group 2: Power Generation Demand - National power generation for the first three quarters of 2025 increased by 1.6% year-on-year to 7,255.7 billion kWh, with thermal power generation declining by 1.2% to 4,696.9 billion kWh [3] - In September, total power generation was 826.2 billion kWh, with thermal power down 5.4% to 517.5 billion kWh, indicating pressure from increased hydropower generation [3] Group 3: Coal Prices - The average price of 5500 kcal thermal coal in Qinhuangdao since October has been 721 yuan/ton, up 3.7% from September but down 16% from the average price in October of the previous year [4] - The price is expected to maintain upward momentum due to a potential tightening balance between supply and demand, with increased daily consumption of electricity coal and expectations of reduced domestic production [4] Group 4: Coking Coal Market - In September, pig iron and crude steel production were 66.05 million tons and 73.49 million tons, respectively, down 2.4% and 4.6% year-on-year [5] - The average price of coking coal at Jingtang Port since October has been 1,675 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.4% from September but down 12% from the previous year's October average [5][6] - The rebound potential for coking coal prices may be weaker than that of thermal coal due to anticipated reductions in domestic steel production [6]