Miller-Howard Q3 2025 Quarterly Report

Market Overview - Major US equity indices reached new highs, with the S&P 500 Index rising approximately 8% during the quarter, indicating strong corporate earnings and a positive market outlook [3] - Despite the market strength, there is significant uncertainty regarding inflation and interest rate trajectories, likened to a precarious balancing act [3] Interest Rates and Employment - The Federal Reserve cut its policy interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, with projections indicating two more cuts by year-end, potentially bringing the rate to 3.6% [4] - The unemployment rate has increased to 4.3%, with job openings per unemployed person falling below 1x for the first time since April 2021, signaling a weakening labor market [5][6][8] Inflation Trends - Inflation remains above the Fed's target of 2%, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) and Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) at 2.7% and 2.9% respectively as of August [11][14] - The Fed's inflation expectations project a gradual return to target levels, with anticipated rates of 2.6% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2028 and beyond [19] Investment Strategies - High-yield dividend stocks have historically performed well in low-growth, high-inflation, stagflation, and steepening yield curve environments, averaging a ~15% annual growth rate during low GDP growth periods [17][21][24][28] - The current economic environment is characterized by multiple uncertainties, including executive orders, tariffs, and AI proliferation, leading to a cautious investment approach [13] Sector Performance - Financial holdings in the Income-Equity portfolio saw significant dividend increases, with 70% of financials raising dividends by an average of 14% [31] - The portfolio outperformed its benchmark, the Russell 1000 Value Index, yielding 3.6% with projected dividend growth of 5.0% for 2025 [33] AI and Technology Investments - The "Magnificent 7" tech companies have significantly increased capital expenditures, with expectations to reach nearly half a trillion dollars by 2027, raising concerns about free cash flow sustainability [36][38] - The current AI investment frenzy is reminiscent of the late 1990s dot-com bubble, with companies like Oracle planning to triple capital spending despite high net debt levels [37][39] Infrastructure and Energy Outlook - The infrastructure portfolio has shown positive performance, driven by AI-related investments and the need for increased electricity demand due to data centers [55][66] - The energy sector is experiencing a rebound, particularly in refiners and Canadian producers, while US natural gas prices have declined due to various market factors [71][72] Dividend Increases and Portfolio Adjustments - The Income-Equity portfolio recorded multiple dividend increases, with notable contributions from financials and healthcare sectors [47] - New positions were initiated in energy and REIT sectors, while positions in TotalEnergies and Conagra Brands were exited due to concerns over dividend coverage and management effectiveness [48]