智通财经网·2025-10-21 08:32Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan indicates that the Hong Kong stock market has officially entered a new bull market starting from January 2024, marking the sixth complete bull-bear cycle since 2003 [2] Group 1: Market Trends and Historical Analysis - Historical small pullbacks in the Hong Kong stock market typically begin after profit-taking following market rallies, with the Hang Seng Index (HSI) averaging a decline of 7% over 11 trading days [1] - In contrast, significant pullbacks during market downturns have seen the HSI average a decline of 17% over 53 trading days, often triggered by tightening liquidity or substantial negative shocks [4] - The average maximum decline during small pullbacks in bull markets is approximately 6.5% for the HSI and 8.8% for the Hang Seng Tech Index, with most small pullbacks lasting no more than 30 trading days [3] Group 2: Current Market Conditions and Future Outlook - The recent adjustment in the Hong Kong market has shown significant declines and durations close to historical averages, suggesting that short-term disturbances do not alter the mid-term upward trend [1][5] - Positive signals such as the easing of US-China relations and proactive domestic policies are expected to support the market, with the technology sector remaining a key focus [5] - The optimism surrounding AI developments and the return of internet sector narratives are expected to enhance the overall performance of the Hong Kong market [5] - The potential for foreign capital inflow is anticipated to increase, especially with the possibility of the Federal Reserve restarting interest rate cuts [5]