三季度业绩大超预期，“深蹲起跳”的非银金融有哪些标的值得关注？

Core Viewpoint - The non-bank financial sector in China is showing signs of recovery, particularly in the insurance segment, which has outperformed the broader market indices recently, indicating potential investment opportunities [1][3]. Performance Analysis - As of October 14, 2025, the Wind All A Index has increased by 23.5% year-to-date, while the SW Non-Bank Financial sector has only risen by 10.6%, suggesting a lag in performance that may present investment opportunities [1]. - During the trading period from October 13 to October 17, 2025, the insurance sector within the non-bank financial sector rose by 3.73%, while the CSI 300 Index fell by 2.22%, indicating a positive trend for insurance stocks [3]. Earnings Forecast - Major insurance companies have reported strong earnings forecasts for the first three quarters of 2025, with China Life expecting a net profit increase of 50% to 70%, New China Life projecting a 45% to 65% growth, and China Pacific Insurance anticipating a 40% to 60% rise [3][4]. - The growth in net profits is attributed to strong performance in equity investments, which have significantly boosted earnings [3]. Asset Allocation Trends - The equity holdings of major insurers have seen substantial year-on-year growth, with China Life, Ping An, and China Taiping reporting increases of 35.7%, 75.9%, and 25.4% respectively in their "stocks + equity funds" holdings [4]. - The total deposits in non-bank financial institutions increased by 4.69 trillion yuan in 2025, up from 2.96 trillion yuan in the previous year, indicating a shift of funds from traditional savings to higher-yield financial products [5]. Investment Products - The Guangfa CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank Financial ETF has a scale exceeding 20 billion yuan and has achieved over 40% returns this year, making it a standout product in its category [6]. - The E Fund CSI 300 Non-Bank Financial ETF, with a scale over 13 billion yuan, has also performed steadily with nearly 8% positive returns this year [6]. Market Sentiment - Institutional investors are increasingly optimistic about the insurance sector, as it provides stable cash flow through regular premium income, making it less volatile compared to brokerage firms that rely heavily on bullish market conditions [7]. - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank Financial ETF has a significant allocation to Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, benefiting from southbound capital flows and the favorable impact of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts [7]. Asset Management Trends - By the end of 2024, the balance of insurance funds is expected to reach 33.26 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.08%, which is higher than the average growth rate in the asset management industry [8]. - The asset allocation of insurance funds is shifting towards bonds, with the bond allocation rising to 50.7% and equity allocation increasing to 8.3%, alongside a notable rise in H-shares and Hong Kong stock allocations [8].