博时宏观观点：结构风险叠加外部扰动，A股或将延续震荡

Group 1: Market Overview - The bond market is neutral, with future opportunities arising from monetary policy easing; A-shares are likely to experience significant fluctuations, similar to Hong Kong stocks, which need to guard against overseas shocks [1] - Recent developments in the U.S. include ongoing trade tensions and risks from private credit and regional banks, leading to a tightening of dollar liquidity and a rise in VIX, while the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield briefly fell below 4% [1] - In China, the growth rate of social financing slightly slowed in September, with government bond net issuance decreasing year-on-year; however, M2 growth remains stable and M1 growth is accelerating [1] Group 2: A-shares Analysis - A-shares have shifted from TACO trading to defensive trading due to external disturbances and internal structural imbalance risks; the upcoming U.S.-China negotiations may reduce external uncertainties [2] - The market indicators are currently in a state of stagnation, suggesting that structural risks have not been fully released, necessitating close monitoring of changes in incremental capital, especially high-risk preference funds [2] - The market is expected to stabilize over time, with a focus on the "14th Five-Year Plan" and Q3 reports as key trading directions [2] Group 3: Hong Kong Stocks - There is a need to guard against the transmission of high volatility in tariffs and overseas shocks affecting Hong Kong stocks in the short term [3] Group 4: Commodity Insights - In the oil market, demand remains weak, supply continues to be released, and inventory accumulation is putting pressure on prices [4] - The medium to long-term trend for gold is positive, although short-term threats from tariffs and the U.S. government shutdown may drive gold prices higher [4]