中药ETF(159647)连续23日获净流入，关注并购整合+基药目录+集采下的投资机会

Core Insights - Recent inflows into the traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) sector, with TCM ETF (159647) seeing a net subscription of 3.5 million units today, marking 23 consecutive days of net inflows [1][2] - The TCM industry experienced a revenue decline of 8% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with profits down 4%. However, Q2 showed a revenue decline of only 2% year-on-year, while profits increased by 7%, indicating resilience in profit performance despite revenue challenges [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - In-hospital TCM revenue continues to decline, but the rate of decline is narrowing, with profits outperforming revenues. Factors include lower flu incidence compared to last year and the impact of price reductions from the third round of centralized procurement [1][2] - OTC TCM revenue shows divergence, with profits underperforming revenues. This is attributed to a high proportion of self-paid products and weak consumer demand, particularly in cold and respiratory categories, while stable demand products like blood tonics and orthopedic items perform better [1] Group 2: Key Factors of Focus - Policy: Centralized procurement of TCM and adjustments to the basic medicine catalog are critical. The third round of procurement saw an average price drop of 63%, but major products remain relatively unaffected. A new basic medicine catalog is expected to be released in late 2025 or 2026, potentially including more TCM products [2] - Cost: Prices of TCM materials have risen since November 2022 but are expected to decline starting in the second half of 2024, currently reverting to November 2022 levels [2] - Demand: Inventory clearance in cold and respiratory categories is anticipated, with subsequent shipments aligning more closely with end-user demand, potentially signaling a turning point for related companies [2] - Industry Structure: Ongoing mergers and acquisitions are increasing industry concentration, with companies setting clear integration goals and further acquisitions expected to strengthen leading firms [2] Group 3: Market Performance - As of October 21, 2025, the CSI Traditional Chinese Medicine Index (930641) rose by 0.21%, with notable increases in component stocks such as Huasheng Technology (000790) up 3.64% and Yiling Pharmaceutical (002603) up 2.05%. The TCM ETF (159647) increased by 0.10%, with a latest price of 1.01 yuan [2][3]