涌入权益市场还是季节性波动？三季度银行理财缩水超1500亿

Core Insights - The bank wealth management market experienced significant fluctuations in Q3, with total outstanding scale decreasing to 30.82 trillion yuan, down 151.47 billion yuan from the end of Q2, and average annualized returns dropping to 2.47% [1][2] - The "stock-bond seesaw" effect led to a shift in investor preferences, with funds moving towards bank on-balance sheet assets rather than a large-scale transition to equity markets [2][3] - Despite the overall decline in wealth management returns, "fixed income plus" products and equity-related products showed strong performance, with average annualized returns of 5.03% and 13.72% respectively [7] Market Trends - The overall wealth management scale showed a "rise and fall" trend in Q3, with a notable drop in September after a rise in July and August, resulting in a total market decrease of over 150 billion yuan [2][3] - The bond market faced volatility, with fixed income products underperforming compared to equity assets, prompting some investors to redeem their wealth management products [2][3] - The average annualized return for closed-end fixed income products was 2.73%, while open-end fixed income products yielded only 2.54%, both underperforming their benchmarks [3][6] Product Performance - Cash management products and fixed income products saw average annualized returns decline to 1.45% and 2.48% respectively, influenced by the downward shift in bond yields [6] - In contrast, mixed and equity-related wealth management products experienced significant increases in returns, with mixed products rising by 1.89 percentage points and equity products by 9.97 percentage points compared to June [7] - The issuance of equity-related products surged, with 12 new equity products launched in 2023 compared to only 2 in the previous year, indicating a growing trend towards equity allocation [7] Future Outlook - The wealth management market is expected to continue its trend of steady expansion in scale, with October projected to see an increase of over 1 trillion yuan, driven by the optimization of product structures by wealth management subsidiaries [8] - The low interest rate environment is anticipated to keep "fixed income plus" products as a key growth driver in the wealth management sector, with expectations for the total wealth management scale to reach over 33.5 trillion yuan by the end of the year [8]