Xin Lang Ji Jin·2025-10-21 11:47Core Viewpoint - The banking sector, particularly state-owned banks, is experiencing a significant recovery, with Agricultural Bank of China reaching a new historical high and breaking the long-standing "price-to-book" ratio below 1 for the first time since March 2018, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards safer assets amid market volatility [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On October 21, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.36%, but trading volume in the two markets fell below 2 trillion yuan, reflecting cautious market sentiment [1]. - The banking sector showed strong performance, with Agricultural Bank of China increasing by 1.68% and achieving a 13-day consecutive rise, setting a new historical high [1][3]. - The bank ETF (512800) recorded a 0.37% increase, marking a 9-day consecutive rise, with a total trading volume of 1.295 billion yuan for the day [1][5]. Group 2: Investment Trends - The banking sector has shown a clear recovery trend since October, with the bank ETF (512800) tracking the CSI Bank Index rising by 5.42% since the beginning of the month, ranking second among all sectors [3][4]. - There has been a notable increase in capital inflow into bank stocks, with the bank ETF (512800) seeing net inflows of 5.939 billion yuan over the past 10 days [5][7]. - The latest scale of the bank ETF (512800) has exceeded 20.8 billion yuan, making it the largest and most liquid among the 10 bank ETFs in A-shares [7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Four key factors are expected to support the banking sector's performance in the fourth quarter: the upcoming mid-term dividend payouts, easing operational pressures, supportive policies including a new 500 billion yuan structural financial policy tool, and a stable interest rate environment [4].