美联储再次降息预期强烈，概率99%背后的深度较量

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction is a focal point for global financial markets, with a strong expectation for interest rate cuts in the near future, particularly a 25 basis point cut in October and a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December [1][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - Federal Reserve Governor Milan advocates for a 50 basis point cut but expects a 25 basis point reduction, indicating a divergence in views among officials regarding the pace of rate cuts rather than the ultimate goal [2]. - Governor Waller suggests a cautious approach, proposing a 25 basis point cut first to observe market reactions before determining the next steps [3][2]. - Waller also notes that the current inflation rate is estimated at 2.5%, with no significant factors expected to cause a sharp increase, while the job market remains weak [3]. Group 2: Market Volatility and Rate Cut Expectations - The U.S. stock market has experienced volatility, with the VIX index reaching its highest level since April, driven by trade tensions and uncertainties surrounding government shutdowns [4]. - The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on October 28-29 is anticipated to result in a 25 basis point rate cut, with the target federal funds rate potentially falling to a range of 4% to 4.25% [5]. - The market's strong expectation for rate cuts is influenced by a combination of economic data, differing opinions among Federal Reserve officials, and pressures from market volatility [6].