Will Earnings Move CME Group Stock?

Group 1 - CME Group is set to announce its Q3 2025 earnings on October 22, with projected revenue of approximately $1.53 billion, reflecting a 3% year-over-year decrease, and anticipated earnings of about $2.63 per share [2] - The exchange recorded its second-highest average daily volume (ADV) in Q3 2025, reaching 25.3 million contracts, with cryptocurrency contracts hitting a record quarterly ADV of 340,000 contracts [2] - CME Group has a current market capitalization of $96 billion, generating $6.4 billion in revenue over the past twelve months, with operating profits of $4.2 billion and net income of $3.8 billion [3] Group 2 - Historical data shows that over the last five years, CME Group had 20 recorded earnings data points, with positive one-day (1D) returns occurring about 45% of the time, increasing to 50% over the last three years [5] - The median of the 9 positive returns is 3.4%, while the median for the 11 negative returns is -1.8% [5] - A strategy to analyze the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post-earnings can be employed, with a focus on pairs that show the highest correlation for trading decisions [6]