智通财经网·2025-10-21 13:37Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan indicates that as the mid-term dividend timing approaches for banks, there is an opportunity for the sector to catch up if market styles become more balanced. The bank expects cumulative revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed banks to grow by 0.4% and 1.1% year-on-year respectively in the first three quarters of 2025, showing an improvement from the mid-year report [1]. Revenue Analysis - The net interest income and commission income are expected to continue improving, with year-on-year growth rates recovering further compared to the mid-year report. However, other non-interest income is likely to face a significant decline due to bond market volatility and high base effects, potentially leading to a double-digit negative growth in a single quarter, which may slightly drag down the cumulative revenue growth for the first three quarters [1]. - The growth rate of interest-earning assets is expected to decline by 0.6 percentage points to 9.2% after peaking in Q2 2025. The new RMB loans added by financial institutions in Q3 2025 are projected to be 1.83 trillion yuan, a decrease of 920 billion yuan year-on-year, leading to a slowdown in growth for listed banks [2]. Profitability Insights - The asset quality remains stable, and credit costs are expected to decline, smoothing out profit fluctuations. The banks are likely to maintain a prudent operating style, with excess provisions made in the first half of the year to prepare for uncertainties. As the economy stabilizes in the second half, the space for reducing provisions will gradually be released, leading to a sequential increase in net profit growth throughout the year [3]. - The report anticipates that the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio will remain stable compared to the mid-year report, with a slight decrease in the provision coverage ratio. The credit cost is expected to decline year-on-year by approximately 4 basis points to 0.40% [3].