LME锌库存告急致严重挤仓！现货溢价飙升至近30年来新高

Core Insights - The zinc market on the London Metal Exchange (LME) is experiencing one of the most severe squeezes in decades, with traders scrambling to purchase increasingly scarce zinc inventories to fulfill contracts on the exchange [1] - The current spot zinc price has a premium of $323 per ton over the three-month contract, marking the highest price differential since 1997, indicating strong spot demand exceeding supply [1] - Zinc inventories in the LME's storage network have plummeted to near historical lows, with only 24,425 tons available for buyers, which is insufficient to meet even one day's demand in a global market of 14 million tons [1] Group 1 - The pressure from buyers has been mounting as several Western smelters have cut production due to collapsing processing profits [1] - Six institutions hold long positions in LME inventories and contracts expiring in the next two days, amounting to at least 300% of the immediately available inventory [1] Group 2 - The spot premium may lead to significant losses for sellers who do not hold physical metal, with the Tom/next zinc price spread rising to $30 per ton, the highest level since the historic squeeze in 2022 [4] - The LME's backwardation has not attracted substantial inventory inflows, as noted by a senior strategist at Marex [4] - Chinese smelters continue production, creating a significant price gap between LME zinc prices and those on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), with some Chinese companies planning to export zinc to exploit the arbitrage opportunity [4]