ETFs in Focus as China's Economic Growth Slows in Q3
ZACKS·2025-10-21 13:56

Economic Growth - The Chinese economy grew at 4.8% in the July-September quarter, marking the slowest annual pace in a year and aligning with analyst expectations, attributed to trade tensions with the U.S. and weak domestic demand [1][7] - This growth rate is a decline from 5.2% in the previous quarter, representing the weakest quarterly growth since Q3 2024 [1] Trade Tensions & Export Data - Despite U.S. tariffs, China's overall exports remained resilient, with global exports increasing by 8.3% in September, the fastest growth in six months, while exports to the U.S. fell by 27% year on year [2] Property Sector & Consumer Weakness - The ongoing property market crisis in China has negatively impacted consumption and domestic demand, with residential property sales dropping by 7.6% in value during the first nine months of the year compared to 2024 [3] Future Projections - S&P projects new home sales to decline by another 8% year over year in 2025 and by 6-7% in 2026, indicating continued weakness in the property sector [4] - The World Bank predicts China's economy will expand by 4.8% in 2025, while S&P Global economists forecast GDP growth to slip to 4% year on year in the second half of 2025 [7] Monetary Policy Outlook - To address the slowing economy, China may implement policy easing, with Goldman Sachs suggesting a 10-basis-point cut in the key rate and a 50-basis-point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio [5][6] - The central bank's easing stance is seen as a response to deflationary pressures and the need to stimulate growth [6] Investment Opportunities - If rate cuts occur, high-growth tech stocks and ETFs such as KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) and Invesco China Technology ETF (CQQQ) may benefit, along with iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) and iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) [8] - Despite subdued retail sales momentum, FXI and MCHI have advanced approximately 23% and 28% over the past six months, indicating potential for further growth with any policy stimulus [9]