美小盘股处境喜忧参半

Core Insights - The Russell 2000 index, representing small-cap stocks, is nearing the year-to-date gains of the S&P 500 index, positioning it as a potential unexpected winner in a volatile market [1] - As of 2025, the Russell 2000 has increased by 12.02%, while the S&P 500 has risen by 14.77% [1] Performance Comparison - Small-cap stocks have historically struggled to outperform large-cap stocks, with the Russell 2000 showing a cumulative increase of only 110.11% since December 31, 2013, compared to the S&P 500's 259.7% [4] - In 2020, the Russell 2000 rose by 18.4%, outperforming the S&P 500's 16.3%, but has not matched this performance in subsequent years [4] Profitability Trends - A significant portion of the Russell 2000 consists of companies with unstable or no earnings, with 43% of its constituents not profitable [4] - Year-to-date, unprofitable small-cap stocks have surged by 55%, while profitable ones have only increased by 8% [4] - From the market low on April 8, unprofitable small-cap stocks have seen a staggering 108% increase [4] Market Dynamics - The S&P SmallCap 600 index has only risen by 3.71% year-to-date, indicating a divergence in performance among small-cap indices [5] - Small companies are more reliant on floating-rate debt, benefiting from interest rate cuts, which can enhance their profitability [7] - The growth of private capital is leading to a reevaluation of small-cap investments, with many high-potential companies opting to remain private rather than go public [7] Investor Sentiment - Despite challenges, there remains a strong belief in small-cap stocks as a "perennial asset class" among certain investment firms [7] - Interest in small-cap stocks is not limited to the U.S., as investors are also focusing on undervalued small-cap stocks in European and Asian markets [8]