How bad is Germany’s industrial slowdown?

Core Industry Insights - Germany's industrial output is experiencing a significant decline, with industrial production falling by 4.3% in August compared to the previous month, marking one of the steepest drops since the pandemic [8][10] - The decline is particularly pronounced in energy-intensive sectors such as chemicals and metals, which remain significantly below pre-2020 levels [8][10] - Over 245,000 industrial jobs have been lost since 2019, indicating deeper economic strain and a nearly 3% year-on-year decline in core manufacturing employment [7][9] Export Challenges - Exports from Germany are struggling, with shipments abroad dropping by 0.5% in August and remaining flat in the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year [9][12] - Exports to China have decreased by approximately 14% over the past year, leading to a record bilateral trade deficit [11][12] - The United States has surpassed China as Germany's top trading partner, reflecting a loss of momentum in Asian markets rather than a surge in sales elsewhere [13] Structural Issues - High energy costs are eroding the competitiveness of energy-intensive producers, with chemical companies reporting the lowest capacity utilization in three decades [14][15] - Demand fragmentation in machinery and automotive sectors is exacerbating the situation, as Chinese firms increasingly produce their own industrial equipment [16] - The industrial model in Germany is facing structural challenges, including slow innovation and the need for significant investment in the green transition [17][20] Economic Impact on Europe - Germany's industrial weakness is affecting Central and Eastern European countries tied to its supply chains, leading to slower orders and subdued investment [18] - The European Central Bank faces increased pressure to manage interest rates carefully due to the economic slowdown in Germany [18] Government Response and Future Outlook - The German government is attempting to address these challenges through tax incentives for green industries, looser migration rules, and selective subsidies, but these measures have yet to restore confidence [21][22] - Chancellor Friedrich Merz has promised reforms reminiscent of early-2000s changes that transformed Germany into an export powerhouse, but political divisions may hinder progress [22][23] - Without a revival in production, jobs, and exports, Germany risks losing its status as a leading export economy [23]