Rise in NII & Originations to Aid ENVA's Q3 Earnings, Expenses to Hurt

Core Insights - Enova International, Inc. (ENVA) is expected to report a year-over-year increase in both earnings and revenues for Q3 2025 on October 23, after market close [1] - The company has a strong earnings surprise history, having exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the last four quarters with an average surprise of 8.72% [2] Revenue Expectations - The lending environment has improved due to clarity on macroeconomic issues, including tariff plans and Federal Reserve monetary policy, leading to decent demand for consumer loans [3] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points to a range of 4.00-4.25% is not expected to negatively impact Enova's net interest income (NII), as rates remained stable for most of the quarter [4] - Higher loan originations and stable rates are anticipated to positively influence Enova's NII [10] Expense Considerations - Enova has experienced a consistent rise in expenses, primarily due to increased marketing costs and investments in technology upgrades, which are expected to continue affecting operating expenses in Q3 [5] Asset Quality - The company has maintained solid credit quality, although it may face higher net charge-offs and potential delinquent loans due to the impact of tariffs on inflation and rising loan balances [6] Earnings Whispers - The likelihood of Enova beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings this quarter is low, as it currently has a negative Earnings ESP of -1.21% and a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [7] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ENVA's Q3 earnings is $3.05, reflecting a 24.5% increase from the same quarter last year, while the sales estimate stands at $809.4 million, indicating a 17.3% rise [8]