专家分析高市早苗首相之路：新执政联盟基础不牢面临不确定性

Core Points - The election of Sanna Takichi as Japan's first female Prime Minister marks a significant milestone in Japanese politics, breaking the "glass ceiling" in a traditionally male-dominated political landscape [1][2][3] - The successful formation of a coalition between the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the second-largest opposition party, Japan Innovation Party, was crucial for Takichi's election, despite not achieving a majority in both houses [2][3] - The failure of major opposition parties to unite against the LDP allowed Takichi to secure her position, as the Japan Innovation Party chose to ally with the LDP instead of forming a united front with other opposition parties [3] Coalition Dynamics - The new coalition between the LDP and Japan Innovation Party is characterized as a "non-cabinet cooperation," which is inherently more fragile than previous alliances [5][6] - The LDP's long-standing partnership with the Komeito party lasted 26 years, but the sudden withdrawal of Komeito created unprecedented instability in Japanese politics [4][6] - The lack of prior collaboration between the LDP and Japan Innovation Party raises questions about the durability of their alliance, as they have historically been competitors [7] Policy Implications - The coalition's agreement on contentious issues, such as political funding, reflects a temporary consensus rather than a comprehensive resolution, indicating potential future conflicts [8] - The new administration is expected to maintain Japan's existing foreign policy framework, particularly regarding the U.S.-Japan alliance, with no significant changes anticipated in the short to medium term [9][10] - The appointment of Toshimitsu Motegi as Foreign Minister is seen as a strategic move to leverage his diplomatic experience, which may help mitigate potential extremes in foreign policy under Takichi's leadership [11]