Brent Bounces Off $60 as Kazakh Cuts and Asian Demand Lift Prices

Group 1: EU Fuel Import Regulations - The European Union is set to implement an import ban on refined products made from Russian crude, effective January 21, 2026, requiring importers to prove that incoming products are not derived from Russian oil [2] - The EU will not accept mass-balancing as a method of compliance, aiming for strict enforcement of the new regulations [3] - Turkey and India are currently supplying 400,000 b/d of refined products to the EU, primarily diesel and jet fuel, which may limit alternatives for European importers [3] Group 2: Market Developments - BP announced a significant oil and gas discovery in Namibia's Orange Basin, with the Volans-1X well encountering 26 meters of net pay with light oil [5] - MOL reported a fire at its Szazhalombatta refinery, resulting in a loss of 40% of its operational capacity [6] - Galp is in advanced talks to sell a 40% stake in its Mopane discovery offshore Namibia, aiming for completion by the end of the year [6] Group 3: Crude Oil Market Trends - Kazakhstan's production curbs and strong Asian crude demand have contributed to a rise in crude prices, with ICE Brent futures reaching $61 per barrel [7] - The geopolitical risk premium has diminished, influenced by potential diplomatic engagements between the US and Russia, although tensions remain due to US tariff threats against India [7] Group 4: Incidents Affecting Shipping - A liquefied petroleum gas tanker exploded off Yemen's coast, raising navigation risks in the Bab el Mandeb strait, which could impact shipping routes [8]