Applied Digital Jumps 47% in a Month: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?

Core Insights - Applied Digital (APLD) shares have appreciated 46.8% in a month, outperforming the broader Zacks Finance sector's decline of 2.9% and the Zacks Financial – Miscellaneous Services industry's fall of 8.1% [1] - Year to date (YTD), APLD shares have returned 369.9%, significantly outperforming close peers like Riot Platforms (115.5% return) and Equinix (-12.5% return) [2] Company Performance - APLD's strong performance is attributed to robust demand for data center infrastructure and a growing focus on energy efficiency [6] - The company expects hyperscaler spending to exceed $350 billion in 2025, which bodes well for its prospects [6] - APLD shares are currently trading above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a bullish trend [7] Business Developments - APLD's Data Center Hosting business provides energized infrastructure services to crypto mining customers, with a total hosting capacity of approximately 286 megawatts (MWs) [12] - The HPC Hosting business is expected to drive long-term top-line growth, with the Polaris Forge 1 facility designed to scale up to 1 gigawatt (GW) [13] - APLD has signed three lease agreements with CoreWeave to deliver 400 MW of critical IT load at Polaris Forge 1, with anticipated lease revenues of roughly $11 billion [14] Financial Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for APLD's fiscal 2026 loss is currently pegged at 36 cents per share, which has widened over the past 30 days [15] - The consensus mark for APLD's second-quarter fiscal 2026 loss is currently pegged at 11 cents per share, also widening over the past month [16] Valuation Concerns - APLD stock is currently considered overvalued, with a forward 12-month price/sales ratio of 27.32X compared to the industry's 3.72X [17] - The stock's valuation is stretched, which raises concerns for potential investors [20]