锂电材料供需逆转 六氟磷酸锂价格跳涨 磷酸铁锂产能利用率进入繁荣区间

Core Insights - The lithium battery market is experiencing a surge in demand, leading to a significant increase in the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate, which has risen by 44% since September 15, with a recent spike of 33% in just ten days [1][2] - The price increase is driven by strong demand recovery and a tight supply situation, with downstream manufacturers of electrolytes and batteries showing significant demand [2][4] - The capacity utilization rate for lithium iron phosphate has reached 73.46%, indicating a prosperous phase for the industry [1][5] Price Trends - As of October 21, the average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate reached 80,750 yuan per ton, up from 55,900 yuan per ton on September 15, marking a 44.45% increase [2] - The price has seen a rapid increase post the National Day holiday, with a 33.14% rise in just ten days [2] - The current market conditions suggest that prices may continue to rise, with expectations that the price could reach 90,000 yuan per ton [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current supply of lithium hexafluorophosphate is constrained, as most manufacturers are operating at full capacity, and any new production capacity will take at least a year to come online [2][3] - The industry is experiencing a near-bottom inventory level, indicating a potential for further price increases due to supply shortages [2] - The lithium iron phosphate market is also seeing increased production, with a reported production of 358,400 tons in September, reflecting a 9% month-over-month increase [4][5] Industry Structure - The lithium hexafluorophosphate production is concentrated among a few key players, including Tianqi Lithium, Dongyue Group, and others, with Tianqi Lithium holding the largest capacity at approximately 105,000 tons per year [3] - A significant contract was signed by Tianqi Lithium for 800,000 tons of electrolyte with a leading energy storage company, indicating strong future demand [3] Capacity Utilization - The capacity utilization rate for lithium iron phosphate has improved significantly, moving into a prosperous range, with a 3.6 percentage point increase from the previous month [5][6] - The first-tier companies continue to operate at full capacity, while second-tier companies are gradually ramping up production [5][6] - The market is witnessing a trend of rising processing fees due to shortages, with price adjustments of 1,000 to 2,000 yuan per ton [6]