Institutions Stay Optimistic, But Bitcoin’s Bull Run May Be Nearing Its Peak

Group 1 - A majority of institutional (67%) and non-institutional (62%) investors maintain an optimistic outlook on Bitcoin for the next three to six months [5] - The report highlights several tailwinds for Bitcoin, including robust global liquidity, a strong macroeconomic background, and favorable regulatory dynamics [2] - The US Federal Reserve is expected to implement two further interest rate cuts this year, potentially attracting approximately $7 trillion from Money Market Funds back into risk-on assets [3] Group 2 - The global M2 money supply index showed positive signals at the start of the quarter, but a liquidity contraction is expected in early November due to the US government shutdown and the Federal Reserve's Quantitative Tightening [4] - Nearly half (45%) of institutional investors believe the market is in the "late-stage bull," indicating an expectation that the growth cycle will soon conclude, while only 27% of non-institutional investors share this view [6] - Both institutional (38%) and non-institutional (29%) investors cite the macroeconomic environment as the primary "Tail Risk" for the crypto market in the near term [7] Group 3 - The anticipated "Uptober" rally for Bitcoin appears to be faltering amid escalating US-China tensions, leading to increased scrutiny of year-end Bitcoin price forecasts from major financial institutions [8]