产能扩张与需求疲软双重挤压 三聚氰胺市场低迷难改

Core Viewpoint - The domestic melamine industry is experiencing a deep adjustment period characterized by supply-demand imbalance, leading to intensified market competition and declining prices since 2025 [1][2]. Supply and Demand Imbalance - The domestic melamine market ended the first half of 2025 with a downward trend, primarily driven by supply-demand imbalance. The production capacity reached 2.31 million tons in 2024 and is expected to increase to 2.6 million tons by the end of 2025, with an additional 940,000 tons of new capacity expected to come online in the following years [2]. - Demand remains weak, particularly from the construction sector, which accounts for nearly 60% of melamine consumption. The sales area of new commercial housing is projected to decline by 12.9% in 2024, and the consumption of melamine in the artificial board industry is expected to drop to 771,100 tons in 2025, a further decrease from 2024 [2]. Profit Margin Compression - The supply-demand pressure has directly impacted corporate profitability, with melamine prices dropping by 20% year-on-year in 2025. As of mid-October, the cash reference price for melamine was 5,084 yuan per ton, while production costs for companies using external urea ranged from 4,778 to 4,856 yuan, resulting in a profit margin of only 228 yuan, down 16 yuan from the previous week [3]. - The core reasons for the shrinking profit margins include persistent weak demand and limited support from raw material prices. The average price of urea in the third quarter of 2025 was 1,762 yuan, reflecting a 6.37% decline from the previous quarter and a 17.27% year-on-year drop [3]. Export Challenges - The export volume of melamine reached 427,300 tons in the first eight months of the year, a 6.2% increase year-on-year. However, the average export price fell by 166.3 USD, resulting in a situation where increased export volume did not translate into higher profits [4]. Industry Structural Adjustments - The industry is witnessing three major trends: increased concentration of enterprises, heightened regional concentration, and a shift towards green and high-end transformation. The market share of the top five melamine companies (CR5) rose from 38% in 2020 to 52% in 2025, indicating a 14 percentage point increase over five years [5]. - By the end of 2025, the total melamine production capacity in China is expected to reach 2.6 million tons, with five regions (Xinjiang, Shandong, Sichuan, Henan, and Shanxi) accounting for 77.5% of this capacity [5]. - The tightening of environmental regulations and the upgrading of downstream demand are driving the need for green and high-end transformation in the industry. The implementation of the new national standard for formaldehyde emissions in 2026 is expected to indirectly boost the demand for environmentally friendly melamine [5][6].