财经观察：海运价格上升，美零售业担忧“年底涨价”

Core Viewpoint - The recent imposition of additional port service fees on Chinese entities by the U.S. has escalated tensions in U.S.-China trade relations, leading to increased shipping costs and potential impacts on U.S. retail prices [1][2]. Group 1: Trade and Shipping Dynamics - U.S. container imports in September fell by 8.4% month-on-month to approximately 2.3 million TEUs, with significant declines in categories such as aluminum products (-43.8%), footwear (-33.9%), and electrical equipment (-31.5%) [2]. - The total import volume from the top ten sources to the U.S. decreased by 9.4% month-on-month, with a notable drop in imports from China [2]. - The shipping costs have surged due to the implementation of new port fees and the threat of additional tariffs, with the Shanghai export container freight index rising by 12.9% week-on-week as of October 17 [2][6]. Group 2: Impact on U.S. Retail and Consumer Prices - The additional port fees imposed on Chinese vessels are expected to increase shipping costs, which will ultimately be passed on to U.S. consumers, particularly affecting prices of textiles and furniture [7][9]. - The National Retail Federation (NRF) predicts that U.S. monthly import volumes may drop below 2 million TEUs in the coming months, marking a new low for the year [6]. - Consumers are already experiencing rising prices and reduced availability of goods, with reports of empty shelves and increased costs for essential items [10]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Market Adjustments - Experts anticipate a decline in shipping industry profits and suggest that shipping companies will adjust capacity to mitigate price fluctuations [5]. - The ongoing trade tensions are prompting a shift in global trade patterns, with a noticeable movement away from trans-Pacific routes towards intra-Asian and Latin American markets [5][9]. - The uncertainty in U.S.-China trade relations is leading to a cautious approach among U.S. retailers as they prepare for the holiday season [6][9].