中信证券：资源国主动干预供给有望为关键矿产带来持续的供给约束及战略溢价

Core Viewpoint - The rise of global resource nationalism is expected to lead to sustained supply constraints and strategic premiums for key minerals due to proactive interventions by resource-rich countries [1] Group 1: Supply Constraints - Resource-rich countries are likely to impose supply constraints on key minerals, particularly small metals, which are scarce and have high supply concentration, making them more susceptible to policy restrictions [1] - Indonesia's nickel export controls have proven effective in value retention, and the country is expected to further strengthen supply constraints on nickel and tin through production quota adjustments and crackdowns on illegal mining [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Democratic Republic of Congo's shift from a cobalt export ban to a more flexible export quota system is anticipated to provide ongoing support for cobalt prices [1] - In the US and Europe, despite intentions to diversify and localize supply of key minerals, multiple challenges related to resources, technology, funding, and regulation may hinder short-term achievements [1]