付一夫：金价暴跌，黄金大牛市结束了吗？

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices, termed "Black Tuesday," raises questions about whether this is a short-term fluctuation or the end of a bull market, necessitating an analysis of the underlying factors, the causes of the drop, and future trends [1] Group 1: Gold Bull Market - The current gold bull market is a result of multiple converging factors in the global economy, politics, and market structure [2] - Geopolitical tensions have acted as a catalyst for the gold bull market, with ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East driving high demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - A shift in global monetary policy, particularly signals of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, has created a favorable liquidity environment for gold, reducing its holding costs [4] - Concerns over the credit currency system, highlighted by rising U.S. federal debt exceeding $37.9 trillion, have reinforced gold's appeal as a store of value [5] - The self-reinforcing effect of the established upward trend in gold prices has attracted additional investment, creating a cycle of rising prices [6] Group 2: Single-Day Decline - The significant drop in gold prices on October 21 was not due to a single factor but rather a combination of short-term negative pressures and market imbalances [7] - Easing geopolitical risks led to a sudden decrease in safe-haven demand, as statements from European leaders indicated support for a ceasefire in Ukraine [8] - A strengthening U.S. dollar, which rose by 0.4%, exerted downward pressure on gold prices, making it less attractive to non-dollar holders [9] - Technical corrections triggered by overbought conditions in the gold market led to a wave of profit-taking and stop-loss selling [10] - A sharp decline in silver prices, which fell by 8.7%, amplified fears of weakness in the precious metals sector, causing further sell-offs in gold [11] Group 3: Future Outlook - The gold market is expected to enter a phase of short-term volatility while maintaining long-term support, requiring separate assessments of short-term variables and long-term fundamentals [12] - Short-term focus should be on upcoming U.S. economic data and developments in the Ukraine conflict, which could influence market sentiment and gold prices [13] - Long-term support for gold remains intact due to unresolved U.S. debt issues, ongoing central bank purchases, and the potential for renewed geopolitical tensions [14] - The ongoing process of "de-dollarization" further enhances gold's value as a store of wealth, suggesting that the long-term bull market for gold is likely to continue [15]