印度石化市场陷入动荡

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. sanctions on nine Indian entities involved in Iranian oil trade have caused turmoil in the Indian petrochemical market, exacerbated by insufficient domestic demand following the anticipated post-Diwali replenishment period [1] Group 1: Impact of U.S. Sanctions - The U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has imposed sanctions on several Indian petrochemical trading companies, which may disrupt related trade activities [1] - Major Indian petrochemical importers are included in the sanctions list, leading to significant concerns about potential chaos in the Indian chemical market [2] - Traders fear that goods sold to sanctioned entities or en route to India may result in unrecoverable payments, causing substantial losses [2] Group 2: Domestic Market Conditions - Domestic prices in India are expected to rise due to the sanctions, with all quotations currently on hold [3] - The anticipated pre-Diwali replenishment has not materialized, leading to weak demand for products like polyethylene (PE), acetic acid, vinyl acetate monomer (VAM), and methyl isobutyl ketone (MIBK) [3] - Factors contributing to weak demand include high inventory levels, prolonged monsoon season, and adjustments to the Goods and Services Tax (GST) policy [3] Group 3: Price Trends and Market Sentiment - The Indian PE market is experiencing a significant downturn, with high-density polyethylene (HDPE) and linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) prices hitting near five-year lows, while low-density polyethylene (LDPE) prices are at a two-year low [4] - Despite expectations for demand recovery post-Diwali, the market remains cautious due to various disruptions, including the extended monsoon and GST adjustments [4] - The PVC market is also sluggish, with low purchasing willingness among companies due to uncertainty regarding the effective date of anti-dumping duties [4] Group 4: Global Trade Dynamics - The implementation of anti-dumping duties and U.S. sanctions is altering global trade flows, with Indian producers seeking alternative markets in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa [5] - The Indian market is shifting towards importing ethylene glycol from the U.S. while reducing purchases from countries under anti-dumping investigation [5] - Current Asian ethylene glycol spot prices have fallen below $500 per ton, with expectations of continued low demand until the end of 2025 [5]