IEA：全球石油市场面临供应过剩

Group 1 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its oil supply growth forecast for this year, expecting this trend to continue into next year [1] - IEA predicts that the production from OPEC, OPEC+, and other oil-producing countries will increase, but demand will remain weak, leading to a projected supply surplus [1] - In September, global oil supply increased by 5.6 million barrels per day year-on-year, with OPEC+ contributing an increase of 3.1 million barrels per day [1] - The IEA now expects supply to exceed demand by approximately 4 million barrels per day next year, up from the previous estimate of 3.3 million barrels per day [1] - The forecast for oil supply growth in 2025 has been raised to 3 million barrels per day, compared to the earlier prediction of 2.7 million barrels per day [1] - Global oil demand is expected to grow by 2.4 million barrels per day in 2026, while the demand growth for this year has been revised down to 710,000 barrels per day, a decrease of 30,000 barrels per day from previous estimates [1] - The IEA indicates that oil consumption will remain subdued in 2025 and 2026, with an average annual increase of about 700,000 barrels per day, significantly lower than historical trends due to a challenging macro environment and the electrification of transportation [1] - The agency also predicts that the transition to renewable energy will occur at a faster pace than anticipated by OPEC and other forecasting institutions [1] Group 2 - OPEC's recent monthly report forecasts that oil demand growth for this year will reach 1.3 million barrels per day, nearly double the IEA's prediction [2] - The report emphasizes that the global economy will continue to grow steadily [2]