Core Viewpoint - The downward trend in Japanese exports may have ended, with a strong rebound observed in September 2025, supported by ongoing robust U.S. business investment expectations [1] Export Performance - September 2025 saw a significant rebound in Japan's export figures, indicating a potential end to the slowdown previously triggered by "Liberation Day" [1] - Despite the overall recovery in exports, exports to the U.S. remain weak, with September recording the largest decline since early 2021 [1] Impact of Tariffs - The decline in exports to the U.S. follows the Trump administration's reduction of tariffs on Japanese automobile imports, which primarily led to increased vehicle prices rather than expanded sales [1] Export Structure and Future Outlook - Japan's export structure is heavily reliant on capital goods, making the recovery of U.S. business investment crucial for supporting Japanese exports [1] - Capital Economics anticipates that, under these circumstances, Japan's export volume will continue to grow at a considerable pace [1]
凯投宏观：日本出口已触底反弹 美国资本开支成核心支撑
Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-10-22 02:26