PTA：供需预期偏弱且油价支撑有限 PTA低位震荡

Market Overview - On October 21, PTA futures experienced fluctuations, with a general atmosphere in the spot market being average and the spot basis being weak. Transactions for October cargo were made at a discount of 85-90, with price negotiations ranging from 4290 to 4355. November cargo saw transactions at a discount of 80 for early November, 75 for mid-November, and 70 for late November. The mainstream spot basis was at 88 [1] Profitability - As of October 21, the PTA spot processing fee was around 122 CNY/ton, while the processing fees for TA2512 and TA2601 futures were 245 CNY/ton and 267 CNY/ton, respectively [2] Supply and Demand - Supply: As of October 17, PTA operating rates were at 76%, an increase of 0.6%. - Demand: Polyester operating rates remained stable at 91.4%. On October 21, the price of polyester yarn saw localized declines, with production and sales increasing in some areas. Factories were promoting sales, and the situation at the end of the trading day should be monitored. The downstream knitting sector was performing adequately, with some downstream players purchasing raw materials as needed. Currently, POY has some profit, while FDY fine denier remains at a loss. With factory inventories continuing to rise, polyester yarn prices are expected to follow raw material prices downward [3] Market Outlook - With the recovery of some PTA plant operating rates and the imminent commissioning of new facilities, the PTA spot basis is expected to continue weakening. However, as the basis approaches a no-risk arbitrage level and some major PTA suppliers reduce their operating rates, the downward space for the basis is limited. In terms of absolute prices, the weak supply and demand expectations for crude oil limit price drivers, along with fluctuating tariff policies, leading to a short-term outlook of limited upward momentum for PTA, primarily characterized by weak fluctuations. The strategy is to remain observant, focusing on Brent crude oil support around 60 USD/barrel, and to treat TA1-5 rolling reverse spreads accordingly [4]