国债期货：期债震荡收涨 短期关注政策面情况

Market Performance - Government bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract up 0.16%, the 10-year main contract up 0.05%, the 5-year main contract up 0.05%, and the 2-year main contract up 0.04% [1] - The yields on major interbank rate bonds mostly declined, with the 10-year policy bank bond "25国开15" yield down 1.9 basis points to 1.9010%, the 10-year government bond "25附息国债11" yield down 1 basis point to 1.7580%, the 30-year government bond "25超长特别国债02" yield down 1.35 basis points to 2.0725%, and the 30-year government bond "25超长特别国债06" yield down 2.8 basis points [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 159.5 billion yuan at a fixed rate, with a bid amount of 159.5 billion yuan and a successful bid amount of 159.5 billion yuan [2] - On the same day, 91 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 68.5 billion yuan [2] - The interbank market showed an overall balanced funding condition, with overnight repurchase rates for deposit institutions fluctuating around 1.31% [2] - Non-bank institutions borrowed overnight using certificates of deposit and credit bonds at around 1.4%, slightly lower than the previous day [2] - The central bank's shift to net injections is aimed at supporting liquidity amid tax periods and month-end pressures, with expectations for continued liquidity support [2] Operational Recommendations - The bond market experienced fluctuations but lacks direction due to new fund redemption fee regulations and upcoming significant meetings [3] - Two scenarios are considered: if incremental policies are below expectations, investors can bet on yield spread recovery and consider long positions in long-term bonds; if policies exceed expectations, short-term risk appetite may rise, potentially suppressing bonds [3] - In a supportive liquidity environment, a pullback in the bond market could present buying opportunities if T2512 falls below 107.4 [3] - Given the current uncertainties, a cautious approach is recommended, focusing on observing market conditions rather than aggressive strategies [3]