Dow, Nasdaq 100 Retreat on Trump Tariff Escalation; Tesla Earnings Up Next

Group 1: Japanese Economic Data - Japanese exports increased by 4.2% year-on-year in September, rebounding from a 0.1% decline in August, while imports rose by 3.3% [1] - The rebound in demand is attributed to the US-Japan trade deal, where the US reduced tariffs on Japanese goods to 15% [1] Group 2: US-China Trade Relations - A 155% tariff on Chinese shipments raises concerns about a potential trade war, which could impact the global economy and risk sentiment [2] - US tariff threats are expected to continue influencing market risk appetite [6] Group 3: US Stock Market Sentiment - US stock futures experienced modest declines, with the Dow Jones E-mini falling 16 points and the Nasdaq 100 E-mini dropping 41 points [3] - The market remains focused on the potential for multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts, with probabilities for 25-basis point cuts in October and December at 98.9% and 98.7%, respectively [4] Group 4: Economic Impact of Government Shutdown - The ongoing US government shutdown could lead to more aggressive Fed rate cuts, as the previous shutdown in 2018-2019 reduced GDP by approximately 0.4% [5] - A Senate impasse may delay key economic data reports, which could support expectations for multiple Fed rate cuts [7] Group 5: Technical Analysis of US Indices - Despite morning losses, US stock futures remain above the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages, indicating bullish momentum [8] - Key resistance and support levels for the Dow Jones include a record high of 47,334 and support levels at 47,000, 46,750, and 46,500 [8]