华源证券：纯电和混动价差缩小 并非一定导致混动销量承压

Core Viewpoint - Despite the reduction of subsidies for new energy vehicle (NEV) purchase tax in 2026-2027 and the increase in technical requirements, the introduction of quality supply is expected to drive growth in NEV sales, maintaining a "positive" rating for the automotive sector [1] Group 1: Impact of Subsidy Changes - The new technical requirements for plug-in hybrid and extended-range vehicles will increase the pure electric range requirement by over 100%, potentially affecting around 40% of these vehicles' eligibility for subsidies [2] - The new requirement states that the pure electric range for eligible plug-in hybrid vehicles must be no less than 100 kilometers, up from the previous requirement of 43 kilometers [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competitiveness - The expected increase in prices for plug-in hybrid and extended-range vehicles due to enhanced range requirements will make product and brand strength, as well as cost control capabilities, critical competitive factors [3] - Companies like BYD are expected to launch new long-range models that meet the new subsidy criteria, with prices increasing by several thousand to over ten thousand yuan compared to older models [3] Group 3: Price Dynamics and Consumer Behavior - The narrowing price gap between pure electric and plug-in hybrid/extended-range vehicles may not necessarily lead to a significant decline in sales for the latter, as consumer concerns about range anxiety remain a key factor [4] - Consumer preferences for vehicle type are influenced by factors such as model positioning and the electric version's range, as seen in the sales performance of different models [4]