Crude Oil Posts Modest Losses on Abundant Global Supplies

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices have settled slightly lower, with crude reaching a 5.5-month low, influenced by a stronger dollar and potential increases in Russian oil supply due to diplomatic discussions [2][5]. Price Movements - November WTI crude oil closed down -0.02 (-0.03%) and November RBOB gasoline closed down -0.0075 (-0.41%) [1]. Market Influences - The strength of the dollar has negatively impacted crude prices, while easing US-China trade tensions have provided some support for global growth and energy demand [2][3]. - Stronger-than-expected Chinese economic data, including a Q3 GDP increase of +1.1% q/q and +4.8% y/y, has been supportive for energy demand [4]. Supply Dynamics - Concerns about a global supply glut are significant bearish factors for crude prices, with the IEA forecasting a record global oil surplus of 4.0 million bpd for 2026 [4]. - A decrease in crude oil held on tankers, reported to have fallen by -12% w/w to 78.44 million bbl, is seen as bullish for oil prices [5]. OPEC+ Actions - OPEC+ agreed to a modest increase of 137,000 bpd in crude production targets starting in November, which was below market expectations [6]. - OPEC's September crude production rose by +400,000 bpd to 29.05 million bpd, marking the highest level in 2.5 years [6]. Geopolitical Factors - Reduced crude exports from Russia due to Ukrainian attacks on refineries have limited Russia's export capabilities, with total seaborne fuel shipments dropping to 1.88 million bpd in early October, the lowest in over 3.25 years [7].