焦煤：产地煤价偏强运行 下游补库需求回暖 蒙煤价格坚挺

Market Overview - As of October 21, coal futures experienced a downward trend, with the main contract 2601 closing at 1177.0, down 39.0 (-3.21%), and the far-month contract 2605 at 1250.0, down 37.5 (-2.91%) [1] - The price difference between contracts 1-5 weakened to -73.0, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1] Supply Analysis - As of October 16, the capacity utilization rate of 88 sampled coal mines was 84.64%, up 1.80% week-on-week, with raw coal production at 854.88 million tons per week, an increase of 18.21 million tons [2] - The inventory of raw coal decreased by 3.49 million tons to 161.56 million tons, while the production of premium coal rose by 11.84 million tons to 438.15 million tons [2] - The capacity utilization rate of 523 sampled coal mines was reported at 87.3%, with a week-on-week increase of 5.4% [2] Demand Insights - As of October 16, the average daily production of coke from independent coking plants was 65.3 million tons, down 0.8 million tons week-on-week, while steel mills produced an average of 45.9 million tons of coke daily, a decrease of 0.4 million tons [3] - The average daily pig iron production was 240.95 million tons, down 0.59 million tons, with a blast furnace operating rate of 84.27%, remaining stable [3] Inventory Status - Total coal inventory (including mines, washing plants, coking plants, steel mills, and ports) decreased by 15.8 million tons to 3616.6 million tons as of October 16 [4] - Inventory at 523 mines increased by 17.7 million tons to 440.3 million tons, while washing plants saw an increase of 15.8 million tons to 474.7 million tons [4] Market Sentiment and Strategy - The coal market showed signs of recovery after a slight decline post-holiday, with downstream purchasing increasing and some traders engaging in bottom-fishing [5] - Supply from major coal-producing regions improved post-holiday, although there were reports of mining accidents in Inner Mongolia and Shanxi [5] - The strategy suggests short-term buying on dips for coal futures 2601, with a reference range of 1150-1300, and arbitrage between coal and coke futures [5]