Market Review - Iron ore futures for the main contract 2601 experienced a slight increase, closing at 769.5 yuan with a rise of 0.13% [1] Fundamental Summary - Australian iron ore producers exported 62 million tons of iron ore through two major ports in Western Australia in September, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, indicating a shift in export market structure with reduced shipments to China and increased exports to Northeast Asia [2] - Vale reported a total iron ore production of 94.4 million tons for Q3 2025, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.9% and a year-on-year increase of 3.8%. Total sales reached 86 million tons, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.21% and a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [2] - BHP's Q3 2025 report indicated a production of 70.2 million tons of iron ore from its Pilbara operations, showing a quarter-on-quarter decline of 9.3% and a year-on-year decline of 1.9% [2] Institutional Perspectives - According to Everbright Futures, both Australian and Brazilian shipments have seen slight recoveries, while other countries also show increased shipments. However, iron and steel production decreased slightly, and steel mill profitability continues to decline, with rebar inventory pressures persisting. The overall sentiment in the black commodity market is weak, although iron ore demand remains high, providing significant price support [3] - Zhengxin Futures noted that a potential visit by U.S. officials to China in early 2026 has led to a minor rebound in commodity prices, but weak demand for finished steel and continuous accumulation of port inventories are limiting the rebound in iron ore prices. The supply-demand structure for iron ore has slightly improved, with market attention on the accelerated progress of the West Moudou project, which may lead to increased supply [3]
受制于成材需求不佳 短期铁矿石呈区间震荡走势
Jin Tou Wang·2025-10-22 06:02